伊朗經濟問題

當伊朗總統內賈德因番茄價格上漲而指責“外國陰謀”時，這是他不能牢牢控制經濟的跡象。當內賈德請求真主解決“牛肉和雞的問題”時，這意味著他實際上什麼也不能控制。


在伊朗，據官方統計，通貨膨脹率達16%。食品價格暴漲引起普遍不滿，並招致曾在2005年伊朗總統選舉中被內賈德的承諾所吸引的窮人的抱怨。


2006年，伊朗290名議員中有150人在一封公開信中要求內賈德減少對石油外匯收入的依賴和削減公共支出。同年，伊朗中央銀行行長警告要防止通貨膨脹失控，50名大學教員要求總統開放國家經濟。


2007年，當內賈德提交增加支出20%的2007年3月至2008年3月的預算案時，人們的擔憂倍增：伊朗經濟能否經受住國際社會的進一步制裁？不過，伊朗靠大量的石油美元收入，也顯示出一些好指數。法國伊朗問題專家、經濟學家蒂埃裏·科維爾指出：“伊朗經濟取得持續增長，貿易出現順差並擁有大量外匯儲備。”

然而，法國國際關係研究所的德尼·博沙爾則不贊同這種積極觀點。他說：“伊朗生產機器在很大程度上由國家控制，生產效率不高，創造就業機會不多、繳稅很少，高額關稅使熱衷於獲得政府補貼的國有企業免於同外國企業競爭。”


伊朗政府靠每天出口270萬桶石油建立了一種不同尋常的補貼機制。在2006年的550億美元石油收入中，有很大一部分被用於各類補貼：住房、就業、麵包、大米、藥品、汽油等。因為對毛拉們來說，石油收入並非是實現現代化的手段，而是政治收益。誰控制了這些補貼(2005年為150億至200億美元，佔國內生產總值的11%)，誰就能爭取到支援者。能源收益既要資助龐大的公職部門人員漲工資，又要資助農產品價格保持穩定，還要資助面向結婚青年的無息貸款。

遭受美國及聯合國多年制裁的伊朗，與世界金融市場直接聯系不多。但當前的國際金融危機仍對其經濟造成了相當大的衝擊，最直接的影響就是世界經濟增速明顯放緩導致伊朗支柱產業石油收入銳減，進而使其財政赤字和發展資金短缺問題突顯，伊朗經濟面臨“滯脹”風險。
　　油價下跌對伊朗經濟的打擊最直接，也最嚴重。作為世界第二大石油生產國，伊朗國民經濟嚴重依賴石油，石油收入為其社會經濟發展的主要來源。近年來，石油出口收入約占伊朗外匯總收入的80％，約占政府預算收入的60％。
　　2008財年（2008年3月21日至2009年3月20日），伊朗的石油收入估計約為780億美元，較2007財年減少了120億美元。據有關部門預測，如果國際金融危機延續到2009年底，伊朗的石油收入將銳減，預計2009財政年度的石油收入僅為300億美元。
　　金融危機不僅影響伊朗的石油出口，而且還波及其石化煉制產品、地毯、開心果等產品的出口，有些外國進口商甚至已經取消合同。2008年下半年，上述產品的出口增長已經停滯，今年的出口形勢更不容樂觀。
　　財政收入的大幅下降導致伊朗的預算赤字巨大。據預測，伊朗2008財年的預算赤字將高達數百億美元。由於伊朗經濟中政府投資占很大比重，這將意味著發展性投資的大幅下降，從而嚴重影響經濟增長。據預測，受國際金融危機影響，伊朗2008財年的經濟增長率將下降至6％，而2009財年將降至3．5％。
　　一些伊朗經濟學家認為，近年來由於政府在經濟增長期採取過度擴張性的貨幣和財政政策，導致伊朗高通脹率、高預算赤字以及政府持續的高支出，這些均成為伊朗遭受世界金融危機影響的主要因素。
　　在過去3年裏，伊朗政府一方面利用石油收入進行大量消費，另一方面強行通過降低銀行貸款利率等手段向國民經濟體系注入大量資金，但同時對相關的項目缺乏有效監管，導致很多計劃用於工農業發展的貸款資金反而流向了房地產等短期內能獲得高回報的產業，嚴重影響了銀行系統，使之資本不足。同時也因金融危機下房地產需求迅速萎縮等因素影響，大量貸款無法償還。目前，伊朗銀行在貸款方面困難重重，導致很多伊朗企業和發展項目無法獲得資金。
　　與此同時，伊朗經濟還受到高失業率和高通脹率的困擾。伊朗官方公佈的失業率為11％左右，但經濟學家認為實際數字可能高達15％至30％。據官方統計，去年9月份，伊朗通脹率一度接近30％。
　　有經濟學家指出，為了降低通脹率，伊朗政府需要減少開支，提高利率，減少流動性，但很可能導致經濟增長停止甚至發生衰退，從而使失業率上升。一些分析人士警告說，伊朗經濟有可能發生“滯脹”。
　　今年來，伊朗已經採取了一些措施努力應對國際金融危機帶來的不利影響，努力防止經濟陷入“滯脹”。

Iran's civil society is experiencing major breakdowns, the country's reformist press and Web loggers are reporting. Signs of growing economic instability include high inflation, rising prices, food shortages, and long lines at gas stations.

In the first week of January, 150 deputies at the Majlis, Iran's Parliament, openly criticized President Ahmadinejad's handling of such issues. The same week, a group of 54 influential Iranian professors wrote an open letter to the government about its agricultural policies.

The professors discussed Iran's "rapidly depleted" natural resources, such as water, and criticized the country's growing reliance on imported grains and rice, as well as the deterioration of its farms and ranches. They said many Iranians, in particular the young, elderly, and poor, have begun to "suffer from severe nutritional deficiencies, which threaten Iran's public nutritional security."

The January 20 edition of the Iranian reformist daily Rooz included an interview with an economist, Saeed Leilaz. "Iran is on the verge of economic collapse," he said. "A large portion of the economic turn for the worse is due to Ahmadinejad's policies and management style … [which] have prompted many to publicly criticize [him]. … The administration has increased government expenditures so much that we will face an enormous budget deficit in the coming year."

Mr. Leilaz also said Iran's deep economic crisis could "ultimately lead to the disintegration of the government."

Gas shortages throughout the country, as well as news of Iranians "waiting in lines for hours to purchase gas cylinders to heat their homes or cook food," were detailed in a report in Rooz on January 14. In some towns, lines of people were three miles long, and citizens were upset about the rising prices of produce, dairy, rice, eggs, cereal, and grains, the paper reported.

The Arab press has been watching Iran's economic crisis closely. An editorial in the Saudi daily Arab News of January 24, "Frustrations in Iran," focused on Tehran's economic travails and "the growing criticism of Ahmadinejad's presidential performance."

"The problem for the president is that the economy is weak," the editorial said. "Despite its oil wealth, life is hard for ordinary Iranians. … There is therefore a groundswell of frustration because of the president's economic neglect."

A Saudi columnist, Ahmed Al-Rabei, wrote in the January 29 issue of Asharq Al-Awsat about the Iranian economic crisis. "Instead of attempting to solve the unemployment and poverty problems of its people, the new revolutionaries decided instead to ‘export the revolution,'" he wrote. "After all, a revolution is not a commodity to import but rather the creation of a new regime that sets an example to others. What the revolutionaries did in Tehran was a disaster rather than an example."

Mr. Rabei criticized Iran for spending money on spreading war rather than helping its needy. "Iran is actively involved in Lebanon," he wrote. "They are the real motivators of war and chaos through the ‘clean money'" — Iran's funding of Hezbollah — "that they appropriated from their poor. They are also involved in both Iraqi and Palestinian affairs. They are involved in acts of violence in Yemen and are nauseatingly active in Syria, Egypt, Pakistan and other nations while at home their unemployment and poverty problems worsen and their oil revenues are channeled into the development of nuclear weapons technology and the building of its military arsenal."

American policy-makers should take advantage of Iran's dire economic situation. Targeted financial measures could lead to the ousting of Mr. Ahmadinejad, who is walking and talking like the leader of a superpower and openly challenging America at every step.

His most recent provocation, creating a $2 billion social investment fund with Venezuela this month "to challenge America," is not going over well with the average Iranian, who is waiting in long lines for food and gas.

Many in Iran would be happy to see a regime change. The American government needs to reach out to these people.

by Mr. Stalinsky is the executive director of the Middle East Media Research Institute.